Scientists: Flights Will Become More Turbulent by 2100
According to research conducted by scientists at the University of Reading in the UK, climate change is expected to significantly increase both the intensity and frequency of turbulence in flights by the year 2100. Analysis of 26 different climate models suggests that atmospheric instability will rise by 10–20%, leading to more challenging flight experiences for passengers.
In particular, “clear-air turbulence,” which is difficult for pilots to predict, is projected to become more frequent and stronger. Studies show that in the past 40 years, wind currents at an altitude of 10 kilometers have already increased by 17%. By the end of the century, this trend is expected to accelerate further.
The Northern Hemisphere is predicted to be the most affected region, with turbulence increasing by 34% compared to a 27% increase expected in the Southern Hemisphere by 2100.
On the positive side, turbulence forecasting systems today have reached an accuracy rate of around 70%. However, the remaining 30% uncertainty makes every flight a matter requiring careful operational attention.
Experts emphasize that these developments will mark a new era for airlines and passengers, highlighting the critical importance of investing in turbulence forecasting technologies to ensure flight safety in the future.
